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Daily Market Lookup

  • The safe haven yen was higher on Wednesday despite a decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to postpone additional tariffs on some Chinese imports, as investors remained skeptical over prospects for a swift resolution to the trade spat. The temporary reprieve in the trade war supported risk-off trades on Tuesday, but analysts warn that the optimism is already fading over a resolution to the trade war between the world’s two largest economies, which has threatened global economic growth. Unrest in Hong Kong, worries about Brexit, and Middle East tensions mean risk aversion could quickly flare up again and roil markets. Trump on Tuesday backed off his Sept. 1 deadline for 10% tariffs on remaining Chinese imports, delaying duties on cellphones, laptops and other consumer goods, in the hopes of blunting their impact on U.S. holiday sales. Still, trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have progressed in fits and starts, so many investors and analysts have scaled back expectations for a resolution in the near term. The single currency showed little reaction to data showing that the German economy, the euro zone’s largest, contracted 0.1% in the second quarter, amid fallout from the trade war. Tariffs on Chinese goods are being delayed to Dec. 15, while certain products are being removed due to “health, safety, national security and other factors,” a statement said overnight. The tariffs were originally scheduled to come into effect in early September. On Tuesday, protesters managed to close down Hong Kong's airport for a second day. Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that the Chinese government is moving troops to the border with Hong Kong. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected Chinese data also provided additional boost to the safe-haven yen. Growth of Industrial production and retail sales both came in lower than expected, official data showed on Tuesday.
  • Gold prices dropped on Wednesday in Asia as the U.S.’s decision to delay imposing tariffs on certain Chinese goods eased tension between the two sides and dented demand for the safe-haven metal. The United States Trade Representative announced overnight that certain products including clothing and cellphones have been removed from the tariff list based on “health, safety, national security and other factors” and will not face additional tariffs of 10%. Other tariffs will be delayed to Dec. 15 from Sep. 1 for certain goods, it said. The decision led to widespread hope that the trade war between the two countries was on the mend, sending equities higher but dented demand for the safe-haven gold. Prior to the news, gold prices hit six-year highs on Hong Kong’s political chaos that saw its airport disrupted for the second day amid ongoing protests. Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that the Chinese government is moving troops to the border with Hong Kong. Analysts warned that the situation could escalate quickly if Beijing decides to act with military force.
  • Oil prices fell on Wednesday after industry data showed U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week, erasing some gains from the last session that were stoked after Washington said it would delay tariffs on some Chinese goods. The move by U.S. President Donald Trump sent commodities, stocks and other assets higher because of optimism the effects of the trade war, already being felt in economies across the world, will be blunted. Oil prices surged by as much as nearly 5 percent. Markets had been pummeled in recent weeks amid tough talk from Trump on trade and they remain on tenterhooks due to the unpredictably of the U.S. president. It is "becoming more difficult by the day to figure out what President Trump will do other than to say he will favor his own interests and then at times seem to work against them," said Greg McKenna, strategist at McKenna Macro financial advisory company in Australia. China's commerce ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that U.S. and Chinese trade officials spoke on the phone and agreed to talk again within two weeks. Data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose last week. Crude inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels to 443 million, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.8 million barrels, the API said. Apart from signs that the U.S.-China trade tensions may be easing, analysts said prices were propped up by a belief that Saudi Arabia would stick with production cuts Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer among the OPEC, said last week it aims to keep its crude exports below 7 mn bpd in August and September to help siphon off global oil stocks. OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to cut 1.2 million bpd of production from the beginning of this year. Oil prices were down on Wednesday in Asia as rising crude inventories outweighed reports that the U.S. has delayed tariffs on certain Chinese goods. Weekly data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose by 3.7 million barrels to 443 million last week, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.8 million barrels. The data sent oil prices down, even after the U.S. Trade Representative delayed imposing a 10% import tariff on laptops, cell phones, video game consoles and some other products made in China that had been scheduled to start next month. The news eased trade tension between the two sides and provided support to the stock markets today Tuesday’s decision came after China's commerce ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that U.S. and Chinese trade officials spoke on the phone and agreed to talk again within two weeks. U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier this month that he would impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods by Sept. 1 as China did not buy more American agricultural products as promised.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th August 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,500-1,509 1,526 1,530-1,539
Silver-XAG 17.20-17.50 17.90 18.50-18.90
Crude Oil 56.50-57.00 57.40 58.20-59.00
EURO/USD 1.1200-1.1250 1.1290 1.1325-1.1350
GBP/USD 1.2065-1.2100 1.2150 1.2190-1.2250
USD/JPY 106.50 107.00-107.60 108.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th August 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,489 1,481-1,474 1,465
Silver-XAG 16.80-16.50 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 56.05-55.50 54.90 54.50-53.60
EURO/USD 1.1180 1.1130 1.1090-1.1000
GBP/USD 1.2010-1.1980 1.1950 1.1900
USD/JPY 106.10-105.80 105.00 104.60-104.00

Intra-Day Strategy (14th August 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

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Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1534.88/oz and low of US$1479.78/oz. Gold down by 0.648% at US$1500.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1410) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1500-1469 with risk below 1469, targeting 1509-1526-1532 and 1539-1545. Sell below 1509-1550 keeping stop loss closing above 1550, targeting 1494-1489-1481 and 1474-1465.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,489
S2     1,481-1,474
S3     1,465
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,500-1,509
R2     1,526
R3     1,530-1,539

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

75.3669

Buy
20-DMA   1451.22 Buy
50-DMA  

1409.22

Buy
100-DMA   1348.80 Buy
200-DMA   1312.23 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.519 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   29.325 Buy

Silver - XAG

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Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$17.49/oz and low of US$16.51/oz. Silver settled down by 0.487% at US$16.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.80-15.00 targeting 17.20-17.50-17.90 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.520-18.90 with stop loss above 18.90; targeting 17.20-16.90-16.60 and 16.20-15.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.80-16.50
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.20-17.50
R2     17.90
R3     18.50-18.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.909 Buy
20-DMA   16.55 Sell
50-DMA   15.71 Buy
100-DMA   15.27 Buy
200-DMA   15.20 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.376 Buy

Oil - WTI

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Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$57.36/bbl, intraday low of US$54.10/bbl and settled up by 3.79% to close at US$56.65/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 56.50-59.00 with stop loss at 59.00; targeting 56.05-55.50-54.90 and 54.05-53.60. Buy above 56.05-53.60 with risk daily closing below 53.60 and targeting 56.10-57.00-57.40 and 58.20-59.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.05-55.50
S2     54.90
S3     54.50-53.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     56.50-57.00
R2     57.40
R3     58.20-59.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.821 Sell
20-DMA   55.53 Buy
50-DMA   56.15 Buy
100-DMA   58.84 Sell
200-DMA   56.37 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.905 Sell

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1169/EUR, high of US$1.1227/EUR and settled the day down by 0.379% to close at US$1.1170/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1293), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1350. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1180-1.1000 with risk below 1.1000, targeting 1.1200-1.1250-1.1290 and1.1.1325-1.1350-1.1400-. Sell below 1.1200-1.1350 targeting 1.1180-1.1130 and 1.1090-1.1005 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1210.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1180
S2     1.1130
S3     1.1090-1.1000

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1200-1.1250
R2     1.1290
R3     1.1325-1.1350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.487 Buy
20-DMA   1.1168 Buy
50-DMA   1.1235 Sell
100-DMA   1.1222 Sell
200-DMA   1.1291 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0013 Buy

GBP/USD

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GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2040/GBP, high of US$1.2096/GBP and settled the day down by 0.063% to close at US$1.2055/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2065-1.2250 with targets at 1.2010-1.1980 and 1.1950-1.1900 stop-loss should be below 1.2250. Buy above 1.2010-1.1900 with targets 1.2065-1.2100-1.2140 and 1.2190-1.2250 with stop loss closing below 1.2250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2010-1.1980
S2     1.1950
S3     1.1900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2065-1.2100
R2     1.2150
R3     1.2190-1.2250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

27.170

Buy
20-DMA   1.2277 Sell
50-DMA   1.2486 Sell
100-DMA   1.2712 Sell
200-DMA   1.2816 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   15.175 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Sell

USD/JPY

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USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY105.05/USD and made an intraday high of JPY106.97/USD and settled the day up by 1.420% at JPY106.73/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 106.10-105.80-105.00 and 104.50-104.00. Long positions above 105.80-104.00 with targets of 106.50-107.00 and 107.60-108.00-109.05 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.10-105.80
S2     105.00
S3     104.60-104.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.50
R2     107.00-107.60
R3     108.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.261 Buy
20-DMA   107.26 Sell
50-DMA   107.77 Sell
100-DMA   109.20 Buy
200-DMA   110.19 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   55.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.553 Buy

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