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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share markets hovered near four-month highs on Thursday with Australian equities the star performer while the New Zealand dollar sank after disappointing jobs data prompted investors to narrow the odds of a future rate cut. Trading was still light overall with China on holiday and no major economic data on the diary. The index has risen steadily since early January as the U.S. Federal Reserve changed its tune on policy for further rate rises. The next major trigger for markets will be any breakthrough in the U.S.-Sino tariff talks when the two sides meet in Beijing next week U.S. President Donald Trump offered little new to chew on in his State of the Union speech but Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday he and other U.S. officials will aim to clinch a deal next week to avert a March 2 increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. In currency markets, the early mover was the New Zealand dollar which slid after data showed unemployment, job gains and wages growth all missed forecasts. The dollar index has now risen for five straight sessions to reach 96.44, recovering almost all the losses suffered after the Federal Reserve all but abandoned plans for more rate hikes.
  • Bruised by global political and economic turbulence last year, foreign investors are now returning to Southeast Asian markets, encouraged by easing trade frictions, a more benign interest rate outlook and prospects of increased infrastructure spending. So far this year, foreign investors have been net buyers of stocks in markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, while currencies in the region have clawed back some of their 2018 losses. A key moment for investors was the U.S. Federal Reserve’s surprise dovish tilt on policy last month, a source of relief for emerging markets that were hit by a rising U.S. dollar and capital outflows in 2018. The Fed, however, is just one of the bullish factors driving Southeast Asia.
  • Oil prices slipped on Thursday after U.S. crude inventories rose and the country's production held at record levels, but OPEC-led supply cuts and Washington's sanctions against Venezuela supported markets. U.S. crude oil inventories climbed by 1.3 million barrels in the week that ended Feb. 1 to 447.21 million barrels, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, average weekly U.S. crude oil production remained at the record 11.9 million barrels per day (bpd) it reached in late 2018. The United States is currently the world's largest oil producer, ahead of traditional top suppliers Russia and Saudi Arabia. Countering the rising U.S. crude output and inventories are voluntary supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) aimed at tightening the market and propping up prices. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions against Venezuela's oil industry are expected to freeze sales proceeds of Venezuelan crude exports to the United States Washington said last week that after April 28 foreign companies will not be able to conduct business with PDVSA using the U.S. financial system, effectively banning them from paying in U.S. dollars. Oil dips on rising U.S. supply, but OPEC cuts and Venezuela sanctions support
  • After a streak of 2019 highs above $1,300, the yellow metal is in an all-too-familiar range-bound pattern last seen in December. And analysts expect the trend, which is in sync with the sideways action in the dollar, to continue until the next cause for alarm in the financial and geopolitical world. Gold futures hit highs above $1,300 for five consecutive sessions through Jan. 31, peaking at $1,331.10, as investors raised their stakes in the yellow metal amid Fed reassurances that it will be patient with rate hikes. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said on Wednesday rates should be left unchanged until the U.S. economic outlook was clearer. Investors will looking out for further messaging on rates and the economy from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will be speaking in Washington D.C. at 7:00 PM ET. Others Fed officials lined up to speak this week include the central bank's vice chairman Richard Clarida, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed Governor Randal Quarles. In Tuesday's overnight trading, gold found some support from President Donald Trump's State of the Union address, where the president raised the prospect of another government shutdown if the Democrat-controlled House continues denying funding for his border wall with Mexico. Trump also said a trade deal with China, which he has threatened to slap hundreds of billions of dollars of new tariffs on after March 1, was possible if Beijing resorted to "real structural change". Palladium remained the world's most valuable traded metal, with its spot price trading at $1,381 per ounce, down $2.30, or 0.2% on the day.
  • Weekly U.S. energy data, worsening Venezuelan production and relentless OPEC cuts are all supporting oil. But Russia, Saudi Arabia's main ally in rebalancing the market, is adding new worries by dragging its feet on promised supply reductions. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude and London's Brent oil rose on Wednesday, erasing early losses, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported smaller-than-expected weekly builds in crude and gasoline inventories and larger-than-forecast distillate draws. EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.26 million barrels in the week to Feb. 1, compared to forecasts for a stockpile build of 2.18 million barrels. In the previous week to Jan. 25, crude inventories rose by 920,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories climbed by around 510,000 barrels in the latest week, compared to expectations for a build of 1.60 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 2.26 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decline of 1.81 million But the EIA also reported that crude stockpiles at Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for U.S. oil futures, hit one-year highs of 42.6 million after rising 1.4 million barrels last week. Total OPEC exports to the U.S. finished at a five-year low of 1.41 million barrels per day in January, data showed on Wednesday. On Tuesday, Platts estimated that the Trump administration sanctions against Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA could chop oil exports from the South American country to the U.S. by a whopping 800,000 bpd to just 300,000 bpd by the end of February. Venezuela's sulfur-laden heavy oil is a blend critically-required by many U.S. refineries to make diesel and other important transportation fuels. Despite such positive factors for oil, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Russia was taking its time in complying with the exports cuts it had committed too under the OPEC+10 alliance, giving itself until May instead of the original March deadline to honor the reductions. On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi-led OPEC was trying to lure the OPEC+10 into a formal tie-up with the cartel to ensure better Russian compliance to rebalancing the market.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th February 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,309 1.316 1,326-1,334
Silver-XAG 15.90-16.40 17.00 17.40-18.00
Crude Oil 54.80 55.50-56.00 57.00
EURO/USD 1.1380-1.1420 1.1460 1.1500-1.1540
GBP/USD 1.2950-1.3010 1.3050 1.3090-1.3150
USD/JPY 109.90-110.20 110.60 111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th February 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,300-1.296 1.289 1,309
Silver-XAG 15.60 15.40 15.10-14.90
Crude Oil 53.80 53.00-52.50 52.00
EURO/USD 1.1340-1.1305 1.1250 1.1200
GBP/USD 1.2910-1.2850 1.2790 1.2700
USD/JPY 109.50-109.10 108.50 108.50 108.00-107.30

Intra-Day Strategy (7th February 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

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Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1315.74/oz and low of US$1305.59/oz. Gold down by 0.675% at US$1306.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1251) and breakage below will call for 1246-1236. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1300-1276 with risk below 1274, targeting 1309-1315-1320 and 1326-1334. Sell below 1309-1334 keeping stop loss closing above 1334, targeting 1300-1296-1289 and 1282-1276.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,300-1.296
S2     1.289
S3     1,309
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,309
R2     1.316
R3     1,326-1,334

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.674

Buy
20-DMA   1297.82 Buy
50-DMA  

1271.97

Buy
100-DMA   1242.91 Buy
200-DMA   1245.80 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.473 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   11.396 Buy

Silver - XAG

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Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.85/oz and low of US$15.63/oz. Silver settled down by 1.20% at US$15.64/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above200DMA (15.27), breakage below will lead to 14.30-13.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.60-14.70 targeting 15.90-16.40-17.00 and 17.40-18.00; stop breakage below 14.70. Sell below 16.40-18.00 with stop loss above 18.00; targeting 16.00-15.70-15.40 and 15.10-14.80.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.60
S2     15.40
S3     15.10-14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.90-16.40
R2     17.00
R3     17.40-18.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.664 Buy
20-DMA   15.61 Buy
50-DMA   15.08 Buy
100-DMA   14.76 Buy
200-DMA   15.25 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   60.342 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.218 Buy

Oil - WTI

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Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$54.49/bbl, intraday low of US$53.07/bbl and settled up by 0.315% to close at US$54.09/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 66.10 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 66.80-67.08. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 54.80-56.50 with stop loss at 56.50; targeting 54.00-53.00-52.50 and 51.70-51.00. Buy above 54.00-51.50 with risk daily closing below 51.50 and targeting 54.80-55.50 and 56.00-56.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     53.80
S2     53.00-52.50
S3     52.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     54.80
R2     55.50-56.00
R3     57.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.072 Sell
20-DMA   53.26
50-DMA   50.89 Sell
100-DMA   58.51 Sell
200-DMA   63.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.916 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.987 Buy

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1360/EUR, high of US$1.1408/EUR and settled the day down by 0.377% to close at US$1.1361/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1475), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1340-1.1200 with risk below 1.1200, targeting 1.1380-1.1460-1.1490 and 1.1520-1.1570. Sell below 1.1380-1.1540 targeting 1.1340-1.1305 and 1.1265-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1340-1.1305
S2     1.1250
S3     1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1380-1.1420
R2     1.1460
R3     1.1500-1.1540

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.518 Buy
20-DMA   1.1411 Buy
50-DMA   1.1394 Sell
100-DMA   1.1432 Sell
200-DMA   1.1550 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   2.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0001 Buy

GBP/USD

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GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2924/GBP, high of US$1.2978/GBP and settled the day down by 0.123% to close at US$1.2930/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3096) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2950-1.3300 with targets at 1.2940-1.2910 and 1.2850-1.2790. Buy above 1.2900-1.2790 with targets 1.2950-1.3010-1.3050 and 1.3090-1.3150with stop loss closing below 1.2790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2910-1.2850
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2950-1.3010
R2     1.3050
R3     1.3090-1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.539

Buy
20-DMA   1.2991 Sell
50-DMA   1.2806 Sell
100-DMA   1.2897 Sell
200-DMA   1.3031 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   6.972 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0102 Sell

USD/JPY

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USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.55/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.04/USD and settled the day up by 0.00036% at JPY109.95/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (111.82), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.50-109.10
S2     108.50
S3     108.50 108.00-107.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.90-110.20
R2     110.60
R3     111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.035 Buy
20-DMA   109.01 Sell
50-DMA   111.27 Sell
100-DMA   111.99 Buy
200-DMA   111.22 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   70.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.434 Sell

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